Uncharted Waters

It looks like the government will shut down....again! I remember when this happened in the mid-1990's and not at all surprised that this is happening again. In the 1990's, Bill Clinton played a smooth game of turning the tables when he was down. In 1994, it looked as if Clinton was down for the count. Republicans swept the House and Senate and were trying to stand on what they felt they were elected to do. Clinton played a savvy game of shutting down the government and blaming Republicans for it. The reality is that both sides were to blame for that, but unfortunately it's all about who wins the perception war instead of exposing reality. Clinton's savvy in addition to Dole's dullness made for an easy 1996 re-election.

I just assumed the same thing was going to happen when Obama was elected in 2008. Yes, he would quickly become unpopular (all Presidents do). Most newly elected Presidents find that ideology and reality are harder to reconcile than they wanted to admit so they abandon many of the things they ran their elections on. Obama definitely did this and became unpopular with many within his base. This economy will recover, but it isn't going anywhere fast and it doesn't take long for the new guy to receive the blame. So it was pretty much a given that Republicans would make some gains in 2010. And when that happened, recent history tells us that there will be gridlock then a standstill and a lot of finger-pointing from both sides. I just assumed that Obama would win this public relations war (he can work his mojo) and go on to an easy re-election in 2012.

But I'm not so sure now. This is going to get interesting because there are a couple of major factors at play that we didn't have in the mid-1990's. First, there is Fox News. Yes, they lean toward the conservative side of things. Let's just admit it. The other news networks lean toward the liberal side of things. Let's not act like it doesn't happen. In the mid-1990's, Bill Clinton didn't have to fight the public relations war. He had the entire news media on his side. Obama has a giant and influential news network thorn in his side that Clinton didn't have. Second, Republicans don't have majority of both houses on Congress. It's not Clinton vs. Dole/Gingrich this round, but Obama vs. Boehner vs. Reid vs. Obama vs....Confused.

So, it's going to be interesting to see who wins this PR war. I'm also interested in knowing who will come to an agreement first; the Federal government or the NFL players and owners. I am certainly cynical about one thing; both cases will yield to a lose-lose situation.